Anti-counterfeit / anti-smuggling campaign hits parcel flows

Current probability

51%

Prior

44%

▲ +7pp

Trend

▲◦

Stable to rising

Preparedness

medium

Coordinated enforcement drive focused on high-risk imported/exported goods. Estimated timeline 1–6 months.

Drivers

▸IP enforcement
▸Illicit-trade pressure
▸E-commerce scrutiny

Recommendations

▸Strengthen sector screening
▸Customer due diligence
▸Authority engagement

Scenario Timeline

2026-08

Taskforces, seizures, platform enforcement, official campaigns

2026-11

Enforcement surge window

Contingency Plan

More inspections and detention of suspect parcels; delays and reputational spillover in targeted sectors. Contingency owner: Security + Compliance + Operations.

Assessment

Impactmedium-high

TrendStable to rising

Preparednessmedium

OwnersSecurity · Compliance · Operations

Contributing Signals

S-011 · 2026-07-18

Decree 85 e-commerce enforcement pressure

S-012 · 2026-07-14

Anti-smuggling / IP enforcement campaign

Alternative Interpretations

▹ Slower rollout — implementation may lag rulemaking by 6+ months
▹ Selective enforcement — largest exporters absorb burden first
▹ Reversal — political feedback softens digital-customs edge

Owners & Deadlines

SecurityComplianceOperations