STATUS: AMBER
M
Living Scenario

Manufacturing relocation and trade diversion create a growth surge

Current probability
64%
Prior
55%
▲ +9pp
Trend
Rising
Preparedness
medium

Upside — but only if capacity, customs, and customer segmentation align in advance.

Drivers
  • Electronics FDI cluster
  • Tariff-driven diversion
Recommendations
  • Align capacity plan with electronics-sector demand curve
  • Prioritize customs support for top exporters
Scenario Timeline
2026-Q3
FDI announcements convert to shipments
2027-Q1
Peak volume test
Contingency Plan

Flex capacity via partner airlines; expedited onboarding for large exporters.

Assessment
Impacthigh-upside
TrendRising
Preparednessmedium
OwnersCommercial · Strategy · Operations
Contributing Signals
S-013 · 2026-07-08
Electronics FDI announcement cluster
S-014 · 2026-07-10
Tariff pass-through raises China-plus-one flows
Alternative Interpretations
  • ▹ Slower rollout — implementation may lag rulemaking by 6+ months
  • ▹ Selective enforcement — largest exporters absorb burden first
  • ▹ Reversal — political feedback softens digital-customs edge
Owners & Deadlines
CommercialStrategyOperations